We see the light at the end of the tunnel.
I have now the same nauseous feeling that plagued me when the real estate market busted in 2008. I was living in Las Vegas at the time, the epicenter of the crises, and many of us went bust also. I am not in Vegas anymore, but now feel for that great city again, because it tends to experience the highest highs and lowest lows. Back than, I figured the Great Recession would last like all recessions, about a year with the stock market returning within six months, but I was wrong, dead wrong. (I chronicled the bursting bubble as it affected Las Vegas on this blog and those articles can be accessed in the archives section.
Now I am more cautious; but predict Covid-19 will pass far sooner and with much less long-term pain. The lion’s share of Americans will start un-sheltering within a couple of weeks.
How soon will this plague pass? People will start feeling better within 30 days. After the initial shock subsides, they will have adjusted emotionally. Within 60 days people will develop a tolerance to the hysteria and slowly begin to function normally while still maintaining extreme hygiene vigilance.
By June 2020 most people will have returned to work and school, and resumed their normal social activities. There will be fall-out of course. Some businesses and individuals will not have weathered the financial crises part of the Pandemic, and will file bankruptcy. Some businesses will never recover and some will disappear. Some people will have died. Some will continue to get sick. Some will have scarred lungs.
By September 2020 the worst of everything will be behind us. There will be fewer Covid-19 infections each passing day. There will be no more shortages of food and toilet paper. Bars and Restaurants will be open full force. Governments will withdraw their states of emergency. Any make-shift emergency hospitals will begin shutting down as the number of cases can easily be cared for by pre-Covid-19 health care providers.
By the end of 2020 the stock market will be hitting new highs. People will be happy again. Optimisim will replace fear. The unemployment rate will be falling as more people find new jobs or return to their old ones. This crises will end soon.